Match prediction·World: World Cup·Saturday 04 Jul, 01:30 UTC
Colombia vs Ghana
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 77% probability because Colombia's 1.67 xG advantage and Luis Díaz's 22% of team creation edge Ghana's 1.03 xG by 0.64—a decisive gap on a small expected-goal total.
Win probability
49.0% home30.0% draw21.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
ColombiastepGhana
1.67Base xG · rolling 26-match1.03
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.67Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.03
Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
7
4
1
1
11
12
6
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
3
5
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BANKER
Over 1.5 Goals
Model 76.6% · @ 1.31
DARK HORSEPro
Over 3.5 Goals
Model 24.6% · @ 4.07
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Luis Díaz 1+ Shot on Target + Under 10.5 Corners + 1X
Model 28.7% · @ 3.48x
Star picks · player props
top 3Anytime ScorerPro
Luis Díaz
Colombia · Bayern Munich
38%@ 2.63x fair
Anytime ScorerPro
Antoine Semenyo
Ghana · Bournemouth
38%@ 2.63x fair
Anytime ScorerPro
Iñaki Williams
Ghana · Athletic Bilbao
36%@ 2.78x fair
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played. Updated daily.
More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Colombia 1–0 Ghana
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+