CF San Rafael 1–5 AE PratMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 27 September 2026

1–5

AE Prat win

AE Prat

> 🧠 Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had CF San Rafael at 45%, draw at 26%, AE Prat at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-5. The model's headline call was CF San Rafael to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Rafael win

45%

Draw

26%

Prat win

30%

Actual ✓

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.65 – 1.32

Total 2.97

Actual

1 – 5

Total 6 (+3.0 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 3.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 80%

✓ Won

Outside shot

Draw

Pre-match: 26%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 80%, backed by San Rafael's 0.33 xG edge and a combined expected output of 2.97 that favors an open contest."

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