FT · Spain: Copa del Rey · Saturday, 03 October 2026

CD Baztán 1–2 Atlético CalatayudMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 03 October 2026

CD Baztán
1–2
Atlético Calatayud win
Atlético Calatayud

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was CD Baztán or draw at 73%. Bawler had CD Baztán at 47%, the draw at 26% and Atlético Calatayud at 27%. The match finished 1–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

CD Baztán win
47%
Draw
26%
Atlético Calatayud win
27%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
CD Baztán or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 78%, backed by Baztán's 0.46 xG edge and balanced attacking threat across both sides."

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