FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Brighton & Hove Albion 4–0 TromsoMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Brighton & Hove Albion to win at 77%. Bawler had Brighton & Hove Albion at 77%, the draw at 15% and Tromso at 9%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Brighton & Hove Albion win
77%
Result
Draw
15%
Tromso win
9%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.7 – 0.8
Total 3.6
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.8 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 3.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Brighton & Hove Albion to win
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Brighton's Home Win dominates at 77% probability, built on a decisive 1.89 xG advantage with Danny Welbeck's striker presence threatening Tromso's fragile 0.84 expected goals."