FT · World: International Friendly · Wednesday, 30 September 2026

Botswana 0–2 MozambiqueMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 30 September 2026

Botswana
0–2
Mozambique win
Mozambique

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Mozambique or draw at 70%. Bawler had Botswana at 30%, the draw at 26% and Mozambique at 44%. The match finished 0–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Botswana win
30%
Draw
26%
Mozambique win
44%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.3 – 1.6
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)

The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Mozambique's 0.30 expected-goals edge and 44% win probability make Over 1.5 Goals the model's 76% high-confidence call in this friendly."

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