FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Besiktas 1–0 EyupsporMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Besiktas to win at 64%. Bawler had Besiktas at 64%, the draw at 25% and Eyupspor at 12%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Besiktas win
64%
Result
Draw
25%
Eyupspor win
12%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 0.8
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 0.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Besiktas to win
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Besiktas' home win is the high-confidence call at 64% probability, built on a decisive 1.26 expected-goals edge that reflects their superior attacking threat."