FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Besiktas 1–0 EyupsporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 16 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Besiktas at 64%, draw at 25%, Eyupspor at 12%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Besiktas.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Besiktas win
64%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Eyupspor win
12%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.04 – 0.78
Total 2.82
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Besiktas' home win is the high-confidence call at 64% probability, built on a decisive 1.26 expected-goals edge that reflects their superior attacking threat."