Auriense Cented Academy 2–0 CD San JoséMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 27 September 2026

2–0

Auriense Cented Academy win

CD San José

> 🧠 Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Auriense Cented Academy at 45%, draw at 26%, CD San José at 30%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Auriense Cented Academy.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Academy win

45%

Actual ✓

Draw

26%

José win

30%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.65 – 1.32

Total 2.97

Actual

2 – 0

Total 2 (-1.0 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 80%

✓ Won

Outside shot

Draw

Pre-match: 26%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 80%, backed by Auriense's 1.65 xG advantage and a combined expected-goals total of 2.97 that tilts toward an open contest."

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