Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 72%
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Bawler's model rates this match: Atlético Melilla are favoured (47% win probability vs 28% for Atlético Pinatarense, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Atlético Melilla 1-1 Atlético Pinatarense (12.1% probability). Expected total goals: 2.9.
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Atlético Melilla 47%, the draw 26% and Atlético Pinatarense 28%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 57% chance. That is based on Atlético Melilla expecting 1.66 goals and Atlético Pinatarense 1.23.
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 55%.