Atlético Calatayud 2–0 CD BaztánMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 26 September 2026

2–0

Atlético Calatayud win

CD Baztán

> 🧠 Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Atlético Calatayud at 45%, draw at 26%, CD Baztán at 30%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Atlético Calatayud.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Calatayud win

45%

Actual ✓

Draw

26%

Baztán win

30%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.65 – 1.32

Total 2.97

Actual

2 – 0

Total 2 (-1.0 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 80%

✓ Won

Outside shot

Draw

Pre-match: 26%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 80%, backed by Atlético Calatayud's 0.33 xG advantage and a combined expected-goals total of 2.97."

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