What we expect
Our forecast for this match.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
In plain English
Antequera CF are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Antequera CF or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Antequera CF vs Aguilas?
Bawler's model rates this match: Antequera CF are favoured (46% win probability vs 29% for Aguilas, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Antequera CF vs Aguilas?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Antequera CF 1-1 Aguilas (11.8% probability). Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Antequera CF vs Aguilas?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Antequera CF 46%, the draw 25% and Aguilas 29%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Antequera CF vs Aguilas?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 59% chance. That is based on Antequera CF expecting 1.68 goals and Aguilas 1.29.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Antequera CF vs Aguilas?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 57%.