Anaitasuna 5–0 CD TedeónMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 26 September 2026

5–0

Anaitasuna win

CD Tedeón

> 🧠 Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Anaitasuna at 45%, draw at 26%, CD Tedeón at 30%. The match ended 5-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Anaitasuna.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Anaitasuna win

45%

Actual ✓

Draw

26%

Tedeón win

30%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.65 – 1.32

Total 2.97

Actual

5 – 0

Total 5 (+2.0 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 80%

✓ Won

Outside shot

Draw

Pre-match: 26%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 80%, anchored by Anaitasuna's 0.33 xG advantage and a combined expected output of 2.97 that favors a multi-goal contest."

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