What we expect
Our forecast for this match.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Our numbers, most likely first
Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
In plain English
Alcalá are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Alcalá or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Alcalá vs Las Palmas?
Bawler's model rates this match: Alcalá are favoured (46% win probability vs 29% for Las Palmas, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Alcalá vs Las Palmas?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Alcalá 1-1 Las Palmas (11.8% probability). Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Alcalá vs Las Palmas?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Alcalá 46%, the draw 25% and Las Palmas 29%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Alcalá vs Las Palmas?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 59% chance. That is based on Alcalá expecting 1.68 goals and Las Palmas 1.29.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Alcalá vs Las Palmas?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 57%.