FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Saturday, 17 October 2026

Al Diriyah 1–1 Al TaawounMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Diriyah or draw at 74%. Bawler had Al Diriyah at 48%, the draw at 26% and Al Taawoun at 26%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Diriyah win
48%
Draw
26%
Result
Al Taawoun win
26%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)

The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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