FT · Spain: Copa del Rey · Sunday, 04 October 2026

AE Prat 5–0 CF San RafaelMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 04 October 2026

AE Prat
5–0
AE Prat win
CF San Rafael

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was AE Prat or draw at 71%. Bawler had AE Prat at 46%, the draw at 26% and CF San Rafael at 29%. The match finished 5–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

AE Prat win
46%
Result
Draw
26%
CF San Rafael win
29%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+2.1 against our forecast)

The match produced 2.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
AE Prat or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 78% because Prat's 0.43 xG advantage and superior attacking setup creates a low-scoring stalemate risk that remains unlikely despite San Rafael's defensive solidity."

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