United States 1–4 BelgiumMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 07 July 2026

United States

1–4

Belgium win

Belgium

> Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had United States at 37%, draw at 31%, Belgium at 31%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-4. The model's headline call was United States to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

States win

37%

Draw

31%

Belgium win

31%

Actual ✓

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.46 – 1.33

Total 2.79

Actual

1 – 4

Total 5 (+2.2 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 2.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed

Banker

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 81%

✓ Won

Value

Pre-match: 71%

✗ Lost

Dark Horse

Over 3.5 Goals

Pre-match: 26%

✓ Won

Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 4.18x

Over 2.5 Goals✓
1X✗
Leandro Trossard 1+ Shot on Target–
Over 8.5 Corners–

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 81% probability because combined xG of 2.79 and even win odds (37% US, 31% Belgium) signal a fixture built for multiple goals despite the tight quality gap."

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