Match predictionยทWorld: World CupยทTuesday 07 Jul, 00:00 UTC
United States vs Belgium
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain โ every number we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals projects at 81% probability because combined xG of 2.79 and even win odds (37% US, 31% Belgium) signal a fixture built for multiple goals despite the tight quality gap.
Win probability
37.4% home31.2% draw31.4% away
xG chain โ base โ adjustments โ final ฮป
United StatesstepBelgium
1.33Base xG ยท rolling 26-match1.39
ร 1.10Home advantage ยท Host nationร 0.95
no injury adjustment โ full squads available per FotMob
1.46Final goal estimate โ what the model uses1.33
Scoreline distribution ยท chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
8
5
2
1
1
9
12
8
3
1
2
7
9
6
3
1
3
3
4
3
1
4
1
2
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
BANKER
Over 1.5 Goals
Model 81.0% ยท @ 1.23
VALUEPro
1X
Model 70.9% ยท @ 1.41
DARK HORSEPro
Over 3.5 Goals
Model 26.3% ยท @ 3.81
BAWL OUTPro
Over 2.5 Goals + 1X + Leandro Trossard 1+ Shot on Target + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 23.9% ยท @ 4.18x
Star picks ยท player props
top 3Anytime ScorerPro
Romelu Lukaku
Belgium ยท Napoli
48%@ 2.08x fair
Anytime AssistPro
Kevin De Bruyne
Belgium ยท Napoli
44%@ 2.27x fair
Anytime ScorerPro
Leandro Trossard
Belgium ยท Arsenal
36%@ 2.78x fair
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played. Updated daily.
More predictions for these teams
โก Full-time recap available
United States 1โ4 Belgium
See how the model called it ยท pick-by-pick verdict ยท xG vs actual โ
Statistical analysis for entertainment ยท Not betting advice ยท Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes ยท 18+