FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Trabzonspor 4–0 GalatasarayMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Trabzonspor at 30%, draw at 24%, Galatasaray at 46%. Against expectation, the match finished 4-0. The model's headline call was Galatasaray to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Trabzonspor win
30%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Galatasaray win
46%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.44 – 1.83
Total 3.27
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+0.7 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 70%
✗ Lost