FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Portsmouth 2–2 Blackburn RoversMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Portsmouth at 42%, draw at 28%, Blackburn Rovers at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Portsmouth to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Portsmouth win
42%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Rovers win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.37 – 1.12
Total 2.49
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.5 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 71%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 70% because both sides generate comparable attacking threat—Portsmouth's 1.33 xG and Blackburn's 1.12 xG suggest a low-scoring but open contest."