FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 12 September 2026
OH Leuven 1–1 Cercle Brugge KSVMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had OH Leuven at 34%, draw at 24%, Cercle Brugge KSV at 42%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Cercle Brugge KSV to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Leuven win
34%
Draw
24%
Actual ✓
KSV win
42%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.57 – 1.76
Total 3.33
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.3 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 85%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 85% confidence—both sides generate comparable attacking threat (1.57 and 1.76 xG), pointing toward an open contest that yields multiple goals."