FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Friday, 18 September 2026
Kasimpasa 0–0 KonyasporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 18 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Kasimpasa at 40%, draw at 28%, Konyaspor at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Kasimpasa to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Kasimpasa win
40%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Konyaspor win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.36 – 1.19
Total 2.55
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.5 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.5 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Kasimpasa's narrow expected-goals edge (1.36 to 1.19) and home advantage underpin a 72% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals, as both sides project sufficient attacking threat despite the tight underlying metrics."