FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Goztepe 2–2 Caykur RizesporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Goztepe at 50%, draw at 24%, Caykur Rizespor at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Goztepe to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Goztepe win
50%
Draw
24%
Actual ✓
Rizespor win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.82 – 1.23
Total 3.04
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 50%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 36%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals ranks as the high-confidence forecast at 79%, driven by Goztepe's 1.75 expected goals—a 0.57 xG advantage that suggests attacking intent will dominate this encounter."