FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Monday, 14 September 2026
Gaziantep FK 0–0 FenerbahceMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 14 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Gaziantep FK at 19%, draw at 23%, Fenerbahce at 58%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Fenerbahce to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FK win
19%
Draw
23%
Actual ✓
Fenerbahce win
58%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.07 – 2.01
Total 3.08
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's 81% call here, anchored by Fenerbahce's 2.01 expected goals—nearly double Gaziantep's 1.07—creating a decisive attacking edge."