What we expect
In plain English
Egypt are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than South Africa, and South Africa have won two of the last three between them. The model sees around two goals in it.
What would change the call
Egypt to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Egypt vs South Africa?
Bawler's model rates this match: Egypt are favoured (60% win probability vs 14% for South Africa, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Egypt vs South Africa?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Egypt 1-0 South Africa (15.5% probability). Expected total goals: 2.37.
How does Bawler predict Egypt vs South Africa?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Egypt 60%, the draw 25% and South Africa 14%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Egypt vs South Africa?
BTTS: No (59% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 1.68 and away expected goals 0.69.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Egypt vs South Africa?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.37. The lean is Under 2.5 (likely a tighter affair).