Match predictionΒ·World: World CupΒ·Tuesday 07 Jul, 16:00 UTC
Argentina vs Egypt
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain β every number we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 64% probability because Argentina's 1.67 xG combined with Egypt's 0.93 creates a 0.74 xG gap that favors attacking dominance at home.
Win probability
51.5% home30.0% draw18.5% away
xG chain β base β adjustments β final Ξ»
ArgentinastepEgypt
1.67Base xG Β· rolling 26-match0.93
no injury adjustment β full squads available per FotMob
1.67Final goal estimate β what the model uses0.93
Scoreline distribution Β· chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
7
3
1
1
12
12
5
2
2
10
10
4
1
3
6
5
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BANKER
Over 2.5 Goals
Model 63.8% Β· @ 1.57
VALUEPro
BTTS Yes
Model 51.7% Β· @ 1.93
DARK HORSEPro
Over 3.5 Goals
Model 21.5% Β· @ 4.65
BAWL OUTPro
Under 10.5 Corners + Mohamed Salah 1+ Shot on Target + Over 1.5 Goals + Home Win
Model 28.2% Β· @ 3.54x
Star picks Β· player props
top 3Anytime ScorerPro
Mohamed Salah
Egypt Β· Liverpool
55%@ 1.82x fair
Anytime ScorerPro
Lautaro MartΓnez
Argentina Β· Inter Milan
52%@ 1.92x fair
Anytime ScorerPro
Lionel Messi
Argentina Β· Inter Miami
50%@ 2.00x fair
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played. Updated daily.
More predictions for these teams
Statistical analysis for entertainment Β· Not betting advice Β· Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes Β· 18+