Match prediction·World: World Cup·Friday 03 Jul, 22:00 UTC
Argentina vs Cape Verde
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals dominates at 75% probability because Argentina's 2.17 xG dwarfs Cape Verde's 0.75, giving the hosts a decisive 1.42-goal edge in shot quality.
Win probability
66.5% home22.8% draw10.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
ArgentinastepCape Verde
2.19Base xG · rolling 26-match0.79
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.19Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.79
Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
4
2
1
11
9
3
1
2
12
10
4
1
3
9
7
3
1
4
5
4
2
5
2
2
1
6
1
1
home windrawaway win
BANKER
Over 2.5 Goals
Model 80.3% · @ 1.24
DARK HORSEPro
X2
Model 28.2% · @ 3.54
Star picks · player props
top 3Anytime ScorerPro
Lautaro Martínez
Argentina · Inter Milan
52%@ 1.92x fair
Anytime ScorerPro
Lionel Messi
Argentina · Inter Miami
50%@ 2.00x fair
Anytime ScorerPro
Julián Álvarez
Argentina · Atletico Madrid
45%@ 2.22x fair
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played. Updated daily.
More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Argentina 1–1 Cape Verde
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+