What we expect
In plain English
Congo DR should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Uganda. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Congo DR or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Uganda vs Congo DR?
Bawler's model rates this match: Congo DR are favoured (55% win probability vs 19% for Uganda, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Uganda vs Congo DR?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Uganda 0-1 Congo DR (12.7% probability). Expected total goals: 2.56.
How does Bawler predict Uganda vs Congo DR?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Uganda 19%, the draw 26% and Congo DR 55%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Uganda vs Congo DR?
BTTS: No (52% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 0.89 and away expected goals 1.67.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Uganda vs Congo DR?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.56. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).