Match predictionΒ·World: World CupΒ·Thursday 02 Jul, 23:00 UTC
Portugal vs Croatia
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain β every number we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 73% because Portugal's 1.64 xG combined with Croatia's 1.19 creates a 2.84-goal ceiling that favors attacking output, anchored by Ronaldo and KramariΔ as primary scorers.
Win probability
44.7% home30.1% draw25.2% away
xG chain β base β adjustments β final Ξ»
PortugalstepCroatia
1.64Base xG Β· rolling 26-match1.19
no injury adjustment β full squads available per FotMob
1.64Final goal estimate β what the model uses1.19
Scoreline distribution Β· chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
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5
6
0
6
7
4
2
1
10
11
7
3
1
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8
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6
2
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3
1
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2
1
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BANKER
Over 2.5 Goals
Model 72.9% Β· @ 1.37
DARK HORSEPro
Under 2.5 Goals
Model 27.1% Β· @ 3.70
Star picks Β· player props
2 picksAnytime ScorerPro
Cristiano Ronaldo
Portugal Β· Al Nassr
52%@ 1.92x fair
Anytime ScorerPro
Rafael LeΓ£o
Portugal Β· AC Milan
36%@ 2.78x fair
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played. Updated daily.
More predictions for these teams
β‘ Full-time recap available
Portugal 2β1 Croatia
See how the model called it Β· pick-by-pick verdict Β· xG vs actual β
Statistical analysis for entertainment Β· Not betting advice Β· Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes Β· 18+