Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelLommel SK on top: we expect them to avoid defeat and do most of the shooting.
Lommel SK v Standard Liege prediction
Lommel SK are favourites on our numbers: 44% to win, against 29% for Standard Liege and 27% for a draw. Our predicted score is Lommel SK 1–0 Standard Liege: the most likely score if Lommel SK win, at 10%. Lommel SK are expected to score 1.5 goals and Standard Liege 1.2, 2.7 between them. Both teams scoring is 55% and three or more goals is 51%.
They have met once on our records, and it ended Standard Liège 2–1 Lommel, in Sept 2019. In their last six games Lommel SK have two wins, two draws and two defeats, while Standard Liege have one win, one draw and four defeats. Both won their most recent match.
For cards, Marco Ilaimaharitra (Standard Liege) has been booked once every 2 games in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here. On shots, our forecast is 14.2 for Lommel SK and 12.8 for Standard Liege, with 4.1 and 3.5 on target, and corners at 5.2 to 4.4. Bawler's pick for this game is Lommel SK or Draw, Lommel SK Over 10.5 Shots and Lommel SK Over 1.5 Shots on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 52% chance, which makes the fair price 10/11 (1.91).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Lommel SK · last 6
Standard Liege · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Lommel SK or draw is 71% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Jupiler Pro League table →Common questions
Who will win Lommel SK vs Standard Liege?
Bawler's model rates this match: Lommel SK are favoured (44% win probability vs 29% for Standard Liege, 27% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Lommel SK vs Standard Liege?
Bawler's predicted score is Lommel SK 1-0 Standard Liege: the most likely score if Lommel SK win, which is the likeliest result (44%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.8%. Expected total goals: 2.7.
How does Bawler predict Lommel SK vs Standard Liege?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Lommel SK 44%, the draw 27% and Standard Liege 29%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Lommel SK vs Standard Liege?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 55% chance. That is based on Lommel SK expecting 1.53 goals and Standard Liege 1.20.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Lommel SK vs Standard Liege?
Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 51%.
When are the Lommel SK v Standard Liege line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Lommel SK v Standard Liege?
Lommel SK or Draw (71%), Lommel SK Over 10.5 Shots (77%), Lommel SK Over 1.5 Shots on Target (89%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 52% chance, a fair price of 10/11 (1.91). 18+, please gamble responsibly.