FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Konyaspor 1–0 TrabzonsporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Konyaspor at 36%, draw at 26%, Trabzonspor at 38%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-0. The model's headline call was Trabzonspor to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Konyaspor win
36%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Trabzonspor win
38%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.46 – 1.50
Total 2.96
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-2.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 80% because both sides generate nearly identical attacking threat—Konyaspor 1.46 xG and Trabzonspor 1.50—making a low-scoring stalemate unlikely."