Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelIstanbul Basaksehir on top, and Ivan Brnić getting plenty of shots away.
Istanbul Basaksehir v Çorum FK prediction
Our model gives Istanbul Basaksehir 57%, the draw 22% and Çorum FK 22%, so Istanbul Basaksehir start as favourites. If you want one score, our predicted score is Istanbul Basaksehir 2–1 Çorum FK, at 9%. Our expected goals are 2.2 for Istanbul Basaksehir and 1.3 for Çorum FK, 3.4 in all. Both sides are more likely than not to score (64%) and three or more goals is 67%.
Ousseynou Ba of Istanbul Basaksehir is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27. We expect Istanbul Basaksehir to have 18.0 shots (5.9 on target) and Çorum FK 12.2 (4.5 on target), and corners at 5.6 to 3.9. That points to Istanbul Basaksehir doing more of the attacking.
On form, Istanbul Basaksehir have four wins, one draw and one defeat from their last six games, and Çorum FK have three wins, no draws and three defeats. Bawler's pick for this game is Istanbul Basaksehir or Draw, Istanbul Basaksehir Over 13.5 Shots and Ivan Brnić 2+ Shots. Our model gives all three landing together a 50% chance, which makes the fair price Evens (1.98).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Istanbul Basaksehir · last 6
Çorum FK · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Istanbul Basaksehir or draw is 78% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Süper Lig table →Common questions
Who will win Istanbul Basaksehir vs Çorum FK?
Bawler's model rates this match: Istanbul Basaksehir are favoured (57% win probability vs 22% for Çorum FK, 22% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Istanbul Basaksehir vs Çorum FK?
Bawler's predicted score is Istanbul Basaksehir 2-1 Çorum FK: the most likely score if Istanbul Basaksehir win, which is the likeliest result (57%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.5%. Expected total goals: 3.4.
How does Bawler predict Istanbul Basaksehir vs Çorum FK?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Istanbul Basaksehir 57%, the draw 22% and Çorum FK 22%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Istanbul Basaksehir vs Çorum FK?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 64% chance. That is based on Istanbul Basaksehir expecting 2.15 goals and Çorum FK 1.28.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Istanbul Basaksehir vs Çorum FK?
Bawler's model expects 3.4 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 67%.
When are the Istanbul Basaksehir v Çorum FK line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Istanbul Basaksehir v Çorum FK?
Istanbul Basaksehir or Draw (78%), Istanbul Basaksehir Over 13.5 Shots (79%), Ivan Brnić 2+ Shots (74%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 50% chance, a fair price of Evens (1.98). 18+, please gamble responsibly.