FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Genclerbirligi 1–2 KasimpasaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Genclerbirligi at 42%, draw at 29%, Kasimpasa at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Genclerbirligi to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Genclerbirligi win
42%
Draw
29%
Kasimpasa win
30%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.36 – 1.10
Total 2.46
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 70%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 70% because both sides combine for just 2.46 expected goals—a thin total that favors multiple scoring chances over a shutout scenario."