FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Eyupspor 0–2 Caykur RizesporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Eyupspor at 35%, draw at 28%, Caykur Rizespor at 37%. The match ended 0-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Caykur Rizespor.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Eyupspor win
35%
Draw
28%
Rizespor win
37%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.31 – 1.36
Total 2.68
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 50%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 75% because both sides combine for 2.68 expected goals with virtually identical attacking threat—Eyupspor's 1.31 xG mirrors Rizespor's 1.36."