What we expect
In plain English
Congo DR are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Uganda. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Congo DR to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Congo DR vs Uganda?
Bawler's model rates this match: Congo DR are favoured (73% win probability vs 8% for Uganda, 19% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Congo DR vs Uganda?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Congo DR 2-0 Uganda (14.8% probability). Expected total goals: 2.76.
How does Bawler predict Congo DR vs Uganda?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Congo DR 73%, the draw 19% and Uganda 8%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Congo DR vs Uganda?
BTTS: No (60% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 2.17 and away expected goals 0.59.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Congo DR vs Uganda?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.76. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).