FT · Belgium: Pro League · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Club Brugge 3–1 AntwerpMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Club Brugge at 67%, draw at 19%, Antwerp at 14%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Club Brugge.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Brugge win
67%
Actual ✓
Draw
19%
Antwerp win
14%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.37 – 1.03
Total 3.40
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.6 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 67%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Club Brugge's home win lands as the high-confidence call on a 1.34 expected-goals advantage that projects 67% win probability against a Antwerp side managing just 1.03 xG."